EGYPT/ Economic predictions

ByFocusMediterranee
28 February 2013
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Vogliamo pubblicare una e-mail che abbiamo ricevuto nei giorni scorsi da un nostro lettore egiziano che desidera mantenere l’anonimato. Il lettore in questione non è una persona qualunque, ma, da fonti certe, sappiamo che è una figura molto apprezzata in Egitto e molto sensibile a quanto sta accadendo nel suo Paese. Ci ha trasmesso le sue sensazioni e le sue inquietanti previsioni economiche. Vogliamo sottolineare che stiamo condividendo con voi il suo punto di vista: le sue “attese”, ma non “certezze”.

Poichè le abbiamo trovate molto interessanti e poichè provengono da una persona stimabile, abbiamo deciso di pubblicarle, in attesa di ricevere anche i vostri pareri e le vostre previsioni sul futuro dell’Egitto. Il nostro intento non è quello di creare il panico e neppure quello di schierarci da una parte o dall’altra. Vogliamo mostrarvi, invece, quali sono i timori quotidiani e le inquietudini di una società – quella egiziana – dopo la Rivoluzione, e come vengono vissuti e affrontati oggi questi timori da un egiziano (e forse non solo da lui).

(ENG) We want to publish an e-mail we recently received from an Egyptian reader who wishes to remain anonymous. He is not an ordinary person, but from reliable sources, we know that he is a very appreciated figure in Egypt and he is very sensitive to what is happening in his country. He sent us his feelings and his economic predictions for Egypt. We want to stress that we are sharing with you his point of view: “expectations”, but not “certainness” of. As we found his words very interesting and as he is a reputable person, we decided to publish them, waiting for your opinions and your predictions on Egypt future. Our intention is not to create panic and not to take a political position. We just want to show you, however, what are the everyday fears and anxieties of a society – the Egyptian one – now, after the Revolution. And how these fears are faced today by an Egyptian (and perhaps not only by one).

Hi! here are my latest predictions: if there’s a bank-run before the month is over, we’ll get an accelerated financial collapse with it, and this will happen sooner.

Egypt reserves on 1Feb were $2bn net of short-term liabilities. We’re bankrupt in 1 month. Gov’t will raid private $ deposits:
1. Your savings aren’t safe under #Morsi #Egypt regime, with ZERO $ reserves looming. If u have EGP account, EGP is fast becoming worthless.
2. If u have $ or Eur account, remember what happened in Argentina 2001: forced exchange of these into local currency at rate decided by gov’t
3. Either way u lose. Keeping money under ur mattress is 2 dangerous now. Ur only option is 2 buy nondepreciating asset (like land).
4. If u have a business, give ur employees an extended holiday & close down 4 a while, restart later when new gov’t understands Econ Science.

And https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-11/black-market-dollars-put-egyptian-economy-on-alert-currencies.html.
“The pound has weakened 5.3 percent in 2013, making it the world’s third-worst performer after the Malawian kwacha and the yen”
“Rising interest rates prompted the Finance Ministry to cut the target for bond sales this quarter by 44%”
Cost of borrowing is up and, even so, investors are unwilling to buy Egyptian debt.

I suggest you to read also this report on https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/data/egy/eng/curegy.htm and you’ll understand why Egypt has not officially reported its reserves position to the IMF since December 2012.